Official modeling reveals that the government’s assertion of being on target for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 hinges on private firms cultivating millions of acres of Crown-owned land with pine trees.
The coalition government indicates that the nation is well-placed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with Minister Simon Watts suggesting the ambitious target might potentially be met as soon as 2044.
The modeling behind those statements has now been made available, indicating that it would require planting an additional 280,000 hectares of new pine forests on government-owned land.
This amount matches what Beef + Lamb claims was shifted from traditional livestock grazing to carbon farming initiatives since 2017.
Critics argue this approach essentially equates to covert privatization, and they believe ministers are mistaken in assuming there is substantial amounts of inexpensive land available for development.
Modeling indicates that the government depends on pine trees to achieve net-zero status by 2050. (3 min 55 sec)
“I reckon they’re living in a fantasy world if they believe that’s how things stand,” stated Gary Taylor from the Environmental Defence Society.
Would you cover the entire Molesworth Station with pine trees? Being New Zealand’s biggest farm at just 160,000 hectares, the scale of this idea is massive.
Nicola Toki from Forest and Bird stated that carbon forestry would permanently secure public lands.
It’s concerning if the government believes that planting pine trees is our saviour for combating climate change.
"It feels somewhat like quietly selling off the public conservation land," she stated.
The National Party has stated firmly that one major component of their climate strategy involves permitting private businesses to cultivate trees on what they consider to be low-value Crown land.
The tree-planting initiative is expected to sequester over 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from now until 2050, making it one of just a handful of major strategies designed to help the nation achieve its environmental goals.
However, the extent of pine planting required was unclear up until this point.
The economic modeling conducted by the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) was disclosed to climate policy specialist Christina Hood via the Official Information Act. According to her, her aim was to comprehend how the forest statistics contribute to achieving New Zealand’s climate objectives.
"The Emissions Reduction Plan published in December was somewhat unclear regarding the additional planting required to bridge the emissions gap—it turns out this figure is significantly higher than what I anticipated," she stated.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts stated that modeling comes with inherent uncertainties, and actual planting levels will be influenced by various elements such as the attributes of the land.
He stated that no choices had been finalized regarding which types of trees should be planted. However, there has been "encouraging" enthusiasm from the industry for considering a combination of pine and native tree plantations.
When asked whether having 280,000 hectares of pine on public property could be beneficial, he responded that using such areas for growing non-native trees aimed at producing timber and/or capturing carbon might be a more effective utilization of the land.
Nevertheless, according to the modeling, should the planting rates not meet the assumed levels, New Zealand might miss the path toward achieving net-zero emissions by a significant amount of tonnes.
Watts states that the government will make changes if needed.
How many trees?
Achieving net zero for long-lasting greenhouse gases is mandated by New Zealand legislation and the nation's global commitments.
The "long lived gases" mentioned in the net zero target are carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide - a long-lived greenhouse gas produced by farming. It doesn't include methane, a short-lived gas which is also mainly from farming.
The MPI model used for estimating tree plantings supported the government’s forecasts in December, indicating that New Zealand was heading towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
When criticized regarding climate change, both Watts and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon have referred to the net zero projections.
The modeling indicates that these trees on Crown land will absorb approximately 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050, which nearly matches the amount required to counterbalance the nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture.
The assumption leans towards mostly using pine trees because they cost less to plant compared to native species and produce carbon credits at a faster rate.
Producing a return is crucial since the government has not provided any financing for the policy.
Overall, to achieve the required reductions in carbon emissions, MPI estimated that 330,000 hectares of forests would be established on public lands, with 280,000 hectares being made up of pine trees.
Out of those pine trees, 230,000 hectares will be designated as permanent carbon forests (meant not for harvesting), whilst an additional 50,000 hectares will be set aside exclusively for continuous logging operations.
This would suffice to reach net zero by 2050.
Should actual tree-planting fall short, the government could find itself in a climate-sized predicament.
Low or high value?
Toki mentioned that the projections were merely theoretical models and probably not practical, which implies that the government should have a secondary strategy for addressing climate issues.
She recommended implementing pest management in indigenous forests to enhance carbon retention.
She and Taylor both agreed that all plantings on conservation land should include native trees.
A desk study conducted for the government found approximately 760,000 hectares of Crown land that could potentially be used for tree planting. This assessment excluded areas within National Parks as well as those already covered by forests.
The government thinks much of this land has little worth and could be better utilized for different purposes.
However, the land had not been assessed for either conservation or agricultural potential prior to the government's involvement. issue an expression of interest invitation .
Taylor mentioned that the area primarily consisted of extensive upland farms or significant conservation lands that had been placed in a "waiting phase" for categorization.
At the same time, Toki mentioned that a recent assessment of West Coast conservation land revealed only 0.01 percent was deemed too insignificant in value to potentially be sold off.
She mentioned that most of the conservation areas the government discussed were visually indistinguishable from National Parks – often even situated adjacent to them.
Register for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , A daily newsletter handpicked by our editorial team, sent directly to your mailbox each weekday.